Location: 29.0°N 96.3°W
Max Winds: 30 mph
Movement: ENE at 5 mph
Pressure: 1008mb
Computer Models Satellite NOAA NHC Track
Post-Tropical Cyclone Beta Computer Models
Post-Tropical Cyclone Beta Satellite Image
Post-Tropical Cyclone Beta Track

Post-Tropical Cyclone Beta Summary

High-resolution visible satellite imagery, surface observations, and
NOAA Doppler weather radar data from San Antonio and Houston, Texas,
indicate that Beta has continued to weaken. What convection remains
is quite shallow with a few cloud tops only extending up to 25,000-
30,000 ft ASL, mainly near and northeast of the center. However,
those low-topped showers are quite prodigious rain-producers with
rainfall totals of 13-14 inches having been measured across portions
of the Houston metropolitan area thus far. The initial intensity of
25 kt is based on near-shore buoy and surface observing stations.

The initial motion estimate is now 065/04 kt. A coastal convergence
zone or trough has formed about 20-25 nmi inland from the Texas Gulf
coast and, owing to the lack of any significant deep-layer steering
flow, Beta is forecast to move slowly along that trough axis and
remain inland throughout the forecast period as a result. The ECMWF
and UKMET models move Beta rapidly northeastward after 48 hours, but
that scenario seems to be overdone given the expected shallow nature
of the cyclone. The new NHC official track forecast is similar to
the previous advisory track and lies close to a blend of the various
consensus models, except that I used the slower forward speed of the
GFS model.

Since Beta is forecast to remain inland for the next throughout the
forecast period, the cyclone is not expected to regain tropical
storm status. Beta to degenerate into a remnant low by 36 hours,
and dissipate over Mississippi or Alabama in 96 hours, if not
sooner. The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous
advisory and closely the simple and corrected-consensus models IVCN
and HCCA.

This is the last NHC advisory on Beta. Future information on this
system, including the rainfall threat, can be found in Public
Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at
10 PM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT2, WMO header WTNT32 KWNH, and
on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

Key Messages:

1. Significant flash and urban flooding is occurring and will
continue for the middle and upper Texas coast today. The slow motion
of Beta will continue to produce a long duration rainfall event from
the middle Texas coast to southern Louisiana. Flash, urban, and
minor to isolated moderate river flooding is likely. Periods of
rainfall will spread east into the Lower Mississippi Valley,
portions of the Tennessee Valley, and the Southeast through the end
of the week. Flash, urban, and isolated minor river flooding is
possible on smaller rivers.

2. Persistent onshore flow will continue to result in above normal
high tides, and coastal flooding over the next few days will be slow
to recede. For information on the ongoing coastal flooding, please
refer to coastal flood products issued by local National Weather
Service offices.


Hurricane and Tropical Weather Links

National Hurricane Center
Weather Underground
NOAA GOES Satellite Imagery
South Florida Water Management District
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