Hurricane Erin is on course to become this season's first major storm
- August 15, 2025
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- By Story/Photos By Bryan - SurfGuru
Tropical strom Erin is expected to hit hurricane status today and ramp up to a major hurricane by early Sunday morning and possibly topping out as a Cat 4 with sustained winds up to 130 MPH. Current models show the storm tracking west-northwest at about 17 mphtoward Florida before hooking northeast sometime between Monday and Tuesday, with the eye passing about 500 miles off the coast. While it is still pretty far out to sea it is closer than originally predicted and this will increase our chances of onshore winds for Mon-Weds potentially hurting the wave quality of the resulting surf.
We might see some early hints of the Erin swell in the water on Monday. Current models predict the swell will continue to build through Tuesday and peak on Wednesday. After that we start a downward trend on Thursday and into the weekend as Erin heads north into the Atlantic.
Wednesday is still looking like the biggest day but may suffer from brisk N/NE winds with Thursday still holding good size but with a chance of cleaner conditions.
Looking ahead: There’s another system brewing about a week behind Erin, and early forecasts suggest a similar path. It is still way too soon to call a path, but we’ll see if this season’s trend of the storms hooking to the north keeps up.