Florida Surf Report/Forecast and Tropical Outlook for August 16th 2024
- August 16, 2024
- 0 Comments
- By Story/Photos By Bryan - SurfGuru
Atlantic Surf Report and Forecast
Friday: The Ernesto swell is filling in throughout the day and may be spotty at first. It will start in the waist-high range and build to chest-high with occasional bigger sets from the East at 8-10 seconds by the look of it. North of the Cape is looking a bit bigger. Expect pulses of surf with some wait time between good sets. NE winds in the mid-teens are adding a bit of chop today.
Weekend: Staying waist with lucky bigger sets at 10ish sec all weekend. Winds are light and onshore for Saturday and offshore for Sunday with a chance of afternoon onshore winds.
Looking ahead: Good sized leftovers for Monday then the swell starts dropping off as the week goes on.
South Florida Surf report and Forecast
Friday: Smaller wind swell. A background bump could be filling in from Ernesto for PBC so keep an eye out.
Weekend: PBC and some of the other northern areas could see a bump sneak past the islands. As the storm moves north the swell angle might get it down as far as Boca but it's going to be significantly smaller
Looking ahead:
Monday may have some leftovers for PBC and a little south of there. Looks like Boca is the cut off point again, so if you are south of there, head north. Surf drops off quickly after Monday.
Gulf Coast Surf report and Forecast
Friday:
Gulfsters: Small to flat.
Panhandle: Small to flat.
Weekend:
Gulfsters: Small to flat.
Panhandle: Small to flat.
Looking ahead:
Gulfsters: Staying Small to flat for the start of next week.
Panhandle: Staying Small to flat for the start of next week.
Tropics and Hurricane Forecast
Ernesto has strengthened into a Category 2 Hurricane with sustained winds of 100mph as of Friday and is continuing its march up into the Atlantic. It has swung further East than originally anticipated creating a rare land strike for Bermuda. Historically Bermuda has been brushed by hurricanes many times in the past but a direct strike is very rare and dangerous for the island.
The swell potential from this storm is still looking promising. Its path should take it through the Eastern side of the “Goldilocks zone,” where it will be more than far enough away to avoid strong winds and rain, but still close enough to generate well-formed, decent sized waves. Since it has moves more towards the eastern boundary of this zone we are expecting waist to chest high sets with a few lucky bigger sets. Though it could be a notch smaller or larger depending on if it stays a Cat 2 or not.
Have a great one and stay safe! - Bryan
*Legal stuff. Just a reminder I’m a surf forecaster not a weather forecaster so please check with the official government storm info outlets for the latest.