Florida Surf Report/Forecast and Tropical Outlook for August 14th 2024

August 14, 2024
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By Story/Photos By Bryan - SurfGuru

Atlantic Surf Report and Forecast

Wednesday: Knee high to very lucky thigh in the better spots at 7-8 sec sec from the East. Gentle offshore winds turn onshore for the afternoon for north of the Cape.

Thursday: On Thursday, expect a short period wind swell and brisk NE winds north of the Cape. South of the Cape will remain in the knee-high range with gentle winds in the morning, transitioning to onshore winds and wind swell in the afternoon.

Looking ahead: By Friday, expect a mix of local wind swell and a significant background bump from Ernesto. Friday is shaping up to be the biggest day, though mid-teen winds might affect the quality a bit. Winds are expected to clean up over the weekend, making for some fun surf from the Ernesto swell! Sunday morning should bring offshore winds and well-organized waves, perfect for dawn patrol. We might see a few leftovers on Monday, but conditions are likely to drop off quickly after that.

South Florida Surf report and Forecast
Wednesday: Small to flat.

Thursday: Small to flat to start the day but we may see some wind swell and NE winds by the late end of the day as Ernesto starts to pass by.

Looking ahead:
Onshore winds and wind swell for Friday. We could see a little of this Ernesto swell on Friday and into the weekend for PBC but it will be blocked off as you head south initially. As the storm moves north the swell angle might get it down as far as Boca but it's going to be significantly smaller.

Gulf Coast Surf report and Forecast
Wednesday:

Gulfsters: Small to flat with SW winds.

Panhandle: Small to flat.

Thursday:

Gulfsters: Small wind swell with onshore winds.

Panhandle: Small start to the day but winds turn SW which could kick up a little afternoon wind swell.
Looking ahead:

Gulfsters: Staying Small to flat for the start of next week.
Panhandle: Staying Small to flat for the start of next week.

Tropics and Hurricane Forecast
Ernesto has strengthened into a Category 1 Hurricane as of Wednesday and has passed over Puerto Rico, now moving towards the Bahamas. It is starting to head north into the Atlantic, where it is expected to become a major hurricane by Friday. Current models show it swinging further east than initially expected, keeping it well clear of Florida.

The swell potential from this storm looks promising. Its path should take it through the “Goldilocks zone,” where it will be far enough away to avoid overly strong winds and rain, but close enough to generate well-formed, sizable swells. At its peak on Friday, we could see overhead sets if it maintains its current trajectory. Even if it moves a bit further out, we can still expect fun chest-high waves for the weekend.

Have a great one and stay safe! - Bryan

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*Legal stuff. Just a reminder I’m a surf forecaster not a weather forecaster so please check with the official government storm info outlets for the latest.