Florida Surf Report/Forecast and Tropical Outlook for July 31st 2024

July 31, 2024
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By Story/Photos By Bryan - SurfGuru

Atlantic Surf Report and Forecast

Wednesday: Shin to knee high in the better spots at 7-8 sec from the ENE. Winds will be gentle but onshore. Only big board ridable at the better spots.

Thursday: Surf stays on the small side at 8 sec for the East with light offshore winds.

Looking ahead: Expect small surf through Friday. We should see a bump over the weekend, but the size and quality will depend on this next storm’s path. The latest Euro model shows a weak tropical storm passing pretty close to Florida’s East coast, potentially bringing 7-8 second waist-high surf with decent winds. If it swings a little further out we should see a little longer period at the cost of some size. The GFS model predicts the storm will pass south of Florida and move into the Gulf, resulting in SE 8-second wind swell with SE winds for the East coast. Either way, we should see a bump in surf for the weekend with some leftovers on Monday.

South Florida Surf report and Forecast
Wednesday: Flat.
Thursday: Flat.

Looking ahead:
Mostly flat and some smaller wind swell ankle busters with onshore winds that build in the afternoon. We may see a little wind swell bump for Friday and Saturday for south of PBC. PBC could see some bigger size depending on the path this next strom takes.

Gulf Coast Surf report and Forecast
Wednesday:

Gulfsters: flat

Panhandle: Flat

Thursday:

Gulfsters: Flat

Panhandle: Small to flat.
Looking ahead:

Gulfsters: Flat though Friday. Depending on which way this next Tropical wave turns we may see some storm action for late Saturday into the start of next week.

Panhandle: Small to flat for the work week and the start of the weekend. Depending on which way this next Tropical wave turns we may see some storm action for the start of next week.

Tropics and Hurricane Forecast
There is still significant disagreement between the Euro and GFS models regarding the tropical wave’s path and potential strength. Without a defined center, there are no official Spaghetti models yet. The Hurricane Center gives it a 60% chance of formation in the next 7 days. The dry air and Saharan dust that have been hindering development are starting to clear, but significant development likely won’t occur until the weekend.

The GFS model predicts minimal strengthening in the Atlantic, with the storm passing just south of Florida as a tropical depression before intensifying in the Gulf and moving north. Models suggest it could strengthen in the unseasonably warm Caribbean and Gulf waters before reaching land north of Cedar Key. Two high-pressure areas, one over the Atlantic and one over the US, could merge, blocking the storm from moving north and potentially stalling it over Florida for a few days bringin us a large amount of rain.

The Euro model, however, predicts the storm will pass close to our East coast, with sustained winds reaching the high 30s or 40s on the storm’s East side, while the West side facing Florida will experience mild winds in the teens. This scenario would likely bring rain and mid-period surf.

I believe the Euro scenario is more likely at the moment, but it depends on how much energy the tropical wave gathers in the next 2 days. If it strengthens early, it could overcome the northern high pressure and swing north earlier, as the Euro model predicts. If it remains weaker, it will continue through the Caribbean, gain strength, and then swing north into the Gulf. The tropical wave should make its turn on Friday and I’ll be able to give you a much better idea which way it will go at that point. In either senario it doesn't look like this will be a strong strom but the chance for flooding with the GFS path is high so be ready if you are in a flood prone area.

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Stay tuned for the latest.
Have a great one! - Bryan

*Legal stuff. Just a reminder I’m a surf forecaster not a weather forecaster so please check with the official government storm info outlets for the latest.