Florida Surf Report/Forecast and Tropical Outlook for May 13th 2024

Florida Surf Report/Forecast and Tropical Outlook for May 13th 2024

Florida Surf Report/Forecast and Tropical Outlook for May 13th 2024

Atlantic Surf Report and Forecast

Monday:  Knee high 4-5 sec wind swell building to thigh+ by the end of the day.   SE winds in the mid teens keeping conditions disorganized.

Tuesday:  Short period wind swell continues.  Winds shift more towards the South but stay strong.

Looking ahead:  Winds turn offshore for Wednesday with some small but clean leftovers.  After that we are dropping to the small range for the rest of the week.


Gulf Coast Surf report and Forecast

Gulfsters: Winds pick up form the South turning onshore by the evening.  This should kick up a knee to lucky thigh high 5 sec wind swell by the end of the day.

Panhandle: Onshore winds in the high teens will be building a decent sized 5 sec winds well as the day goes on.  

Looking ahead:  
Gulfsters:  Continued onshore winds and wind swell through Thursday.  We start to see a little longer period as we head toward the end of the week so there may be some ridable sections out there.  On Friday the winds switch to the South which could give us some slightly cleaner but a little smaller leftovers.  We will be back to the small to flat range for the weekend.

Panhandle: Winds shift to the NW/W on Wednesday which may make for some decent 7 sec surf.  Size drops off for Thursday along with gentle variable direction winds.  Winds turn back onshore for Friday and stay that way for the weekend bringing another round of 6 or so sec wind swell waves.


Tropics and Hurricane Forecast

Not too much at the moment but we have very warm waters and favorable conditions for an active season.  I’m currently expecting to see named storms start showing up around middle, maybe even early June.  

However, we may see our first little taste of tropical action coming up next week.  While I do not have high expectations that this will form into anything strong by any measure, I’m keeping an eye on an area of low pressure that should make its way out into the Atlantic around Tuesday. 

Currently the Euro model is forecasting it that the low will stay further south, passing over Florida and then hitting the warmer waters off our coast, building some strength and then heading NE into the Atlantic.  The GFS on the other hand is predicting a more northern track where the center passes over Virginia and then heads NE into the Atlantic.  As you can see from the image of the Euro below, this could spin up a little rotation that would bring us a nice little ENE swell while staying safely offshore.  If it follows the GFS path and encounters the cooler waters off of Virginia it will probably be a big nothing burger for us.  While it looks dramatic, before anyone gets too excited, this low is covering a large area and even if it follows the southern path and exhibits a little spin it's not tight enough to really form into anything major.  Have a great one!  - Bryan 

*Legal stuff. Just a reminder I’m a surf forecaster not a weather forecaster so please check with the official government storm info outlets for the latest.
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