Could our next big swell be from Gabrielle?

September 3, 2025
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By Story/Photos By Bryan - SurfGuru

There is a wave of energy coming off of Africa that has a decent chance of forming into a named storm. The western Atlantic is still a little cooler than it was before Erin but the waters closer to the US have warmed back up enough to support a bigger storm thanks to the heat from the Gulf Stream and the higher than average ocean temps this season. If the storm heads north and stays 1000 miles, or more, to the east of us or heads south to the Caribbean it probably won’t develop into a major hurricane but if it follows suit of the last few storms this season and hooks north at the last minute it would enter those warm west Atlantic waters and have a very good chance at becoming another major storm with a similar path to Erin, taking the name Gabrielle.

(GFS long term projection below for Wednesday 9/17/25 with the storm heading to the north, centered about 700 miles off of the Florida coast)

This will be about 2 weeks from now so there is still a lot of uncertainty, but it is worth watching, in my opinion, judging by the current forecast models and this season’s trends. That being said, if this storm becomes a major hurricane it can become even more unpredictable so stay up to date with the latest National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/.

If this storm tracks to the south, as the Euro is forecasting, and dissipates it sets the stage for another potential local low to form off of the East Coast later next week creating another NE wind field and setting us up for a N/NE swell similar to what we saw over the last few days (9/1-9/3).

(potential local area of low presure creating a NE wind field expected by the Euro model below for Thursday 9/11/25)