Location: 34.6°N 78.1°W
Max Winds: 80 mph
Movement: NNE at 22 mph
Pressure: 990mb
Computer Models Satellite NOAA NHC Track
Hurricane Isaias Computer Models
Hurricane Isaias Satellite Image
Hurricane Isaias Track

Hurricane Isaias Summary

NWS Doppler radar data and reports from an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Isaias re-intensified to a
hurricane despite a less than impressive appearance in satellite
imagery. The aircraft reported 117 kt winds at 700 mb to the
east of the center, but these were not mixed to the surface by
the weak convection in that area, as the maximum SFMR winds were 75
kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity is raised to 75 kt.

The hurricane is moving 020/19, and a faster forward speed is
expected as the system moves farther into the mid-latitude
southwesterly flow. This should bring the center onshore in
southern North Carolina shortly, followed by a track through the
mid-Atlantic and western New England states Tuesday and Tuesday
night and into southeastern Canada early Wednesday.

Interaction with a strong jet stream suggests that Isaias should
weaken more slowly than normal as it moves through the eastern
United States, and this should produce very strong wind gusts along
the mid-Atlantic coast tomorrow. As a result, the gust factors at
24-48 h have been increased above the standard 20 percent in the
Forecast/Advisory (TCMAT4). The cyclone is forecast to be absorbed
by a larger extratropical low over Canada in about 72 h.

Key Messages:

1. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along portions of the immediate coastline and adjacent waterways of
northeastern South Carolina and the North Carolina coast, including
portions of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. Residents in these
areas should follow advice given by local emergency officials.

2. Hurricane conditions are spreading into the southern portion of
the hurricane Warning area and should spread northward through
tonight and early tomorrow morning.

3. Isaias is expected to bring widespread sustained tropical storm
force winds and wind gusts to hurricane force to the mid-Atlantic
coast, including portions of the Chesapeake Bay region, later
tonight and on Tuesday, which could cause tree damage and power
outages. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread across
New England late Tuesday into early Wednesday.

4. Heavy rainfall along the East Coast near the path of Isaias will
result in flash and urban flooding, some of which may be significant
in the eastern Carolinas, mid-Atlantic and northeast through
Wednesday. Widespread minor to moderate river flooding is possible
across portions of the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic. Quick-
responding rivers in the northeast will also be susceptible to minor
river flooding.

Hurricane and Tropical Weather Links

National Hurricane Center
Weather Underground
NOAA GOES Satellite Imagery
South Florida Water Management District
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